I. Location of Iran
- Area: 1 648 195 km²
- Population: 78.9 million of inhabitants
- National language: Persian
- National religion: Islam (90% Shiites).
Iran groups 40% of the Shiites of the world.
- The government: the Shiites are (over-) dominant. Ali Khamenei is the most powerful religious and political man in Iran (called the "ayatollah", both political and religious supreme leader).
- Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the ancient
president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, a very conservative politician, who refused diplomatic relations with the West for years; Hassan Rohani is the current
president since 2013 (the latter is considered as being far more flexible and moderate).
- Economic status: Iran stands among the biggest petrol and gas producers. It still undergoes American and
European Union (since 1st July 2012) embargos. Consequently, imports
are significantly reduced, and the global economy weakened.
II.
Diplomatic situation
Iran participated in numerous conflicts. In 1946, Russia invaded the
North of Iran ; in 1953, the CIA overthrown Mossadegh government ("Ajax Operation", in response to the nationalisation of the iranian oil) ; in 1979, during the Islamic Revolution, the Pasdarans, the Revolutionnary Guards, took the US's ambassy in Tehran's staff (152 people) in hostage for 444 days.
The war against the Sunni Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein which lasted from 1984 to 1987 made one million victims. As a result, Iran claimed that it wants to acquire nuclear bomb in order to defend itself ; but the genuine reasons are numerus (indeed, in order to make its voice heard in the changing world order, being a nuclear power is hepful).
The war against the Sunni Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein which lasted from 1984 to 1987 made one million victims. As a result, Iran claimed that it wants to acquire nuclear bomb in order to defend itself ; but the genuine reasons are numerus (indeed, in order to make its voice heard in the changing world order, being a nuclear power is hepful).
Secondly, there are also deep religious tensions in this Arabic area.
On the one hand, Iran is (geographically) close to Sunni countries, Saudi Arabia (the Sunni leader) for instance, and the Gulf countries, who are strongly oppose to the Shiite faith.
On the other hand, Iran is heading the Shiite (or Shia) Crescent ("croissant chiite"), formed by Iran, Iraq (the iraqi population is half Sunni half Shiite), Syria (the Al Assad's Alawite clan is a Shiite one) and the lebanese Hezbollah of Hassan Nasrallah (a terrorist organisation fighting along with syrian troops and pledging to destroy Israel).
Israel has a special status as it is the emissary of the Western countries, namely the US (at least it used to be so, up until this very deal). Israel is deeply concerned about a nuclear Iran, as the previous Iran president (Ahmadinejad) and the current ayatollah were fiercely against the idea of a jewish State in the region, developing a loudly antisemite rhetoric, which is why Israel is strongly opposed to the deal (and waged a war in the American congress through Aipac to avoid it, unsuccesfully).
Israel unofficialy has the nuclear bomb (Israel never recognized it but it is clear they do) - along with Pakistan, India, and China - which is why Iran does not see why they could not have it too ; obviously, Iran looks for being equal with its neighbours.
On the one hand, Iran is (geographically) close to Sunni countries, Saudi Arabia (the Sunni leader) for instance, and the Gulf countries, who are strongly oppose to the Shiite faith.
On the other hand, Iran is heading the Shiite (or Shia) Crescent ("croissant chiite"), formed by Iran, Iraq (the iraqi population is half Sunni half Shiite), Syria (the Al Assad's Alawite clan is a Shiite one) and the lebanese Hezbollah of Hassan Nasrallah (a terrorist organisation fighting along with syrian troops and pledging to destroy Israel).
Israel has a special status as it is the emissary of the Western countries, namely the US (at least it used to be so, up until this very deal). Israel is deeply concerned about a nuclear Iran, as the previous Iran president (Ahmadinejad) and the current ayatollah were fiercely against the idea of a jewish State in the region, developing a loudly antisemite rhetoric, which is why Israel is strongly opposed to the deal (and waged a war in the American congress through Aipac to avoid it, unsuccesfully).
Israel unofficialy has the nuclear bomb (Israel never recognized it but it is clear they do) - along with Pakistan, India, and China - which is why Iran does not see why they could not have it too ; obviously, Iran looks for being equal with its neighbours.
In the same way, on the one hand, since 1979, Iran didn’t keep any
contact with America. On the other hand, America has military bases in many surrounding
countries like Iraq, Turkey, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Egypt,
Jordan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, originally settled to fight against
terrorism - maybe in order to keep an eye on this oil-rich region an especially Iran.
Now it is clear that the US needs Iran support to fight the Islamic State, a Sunni organisation (although the Arab Sunni State, such as Saudi Arabia are also fighting it - this is an other problem).
Now it is clear that the US needs Iran support to fight the Islamic State, a Sunni organisation (although the Arab Sunni State, such as Saudi Arabia are also fighting it - this is an other problem).
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| American bases in the middle East |
The Iran official nuclear position was clearly admitted. Iran is a
member of the IAEA (International Atomic
Energy Agency) since 1959, and signed in 1968 the NPT (Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty).
In conclusion, Iran was allowed to use nuclear power plants for civil use only. However, suspicions rose in the 2000s. In fact, Natanz, Arak, Fordow, Buchehr nuclear power plants are suspected to produce enough enriched uranium to build nuclear weapons.
In conclusion, Iran was allowed to use nuclear power plants for civil use only. However, suspicions rose in the 2000s. In fact, Natanz, Arak, Fordow, Buchehr nuclear power plants are suspected to produce enough enriched uranium to build nuclear weapons.
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| Nuclear suspicious facilites in Iran |
III. Chronological evolution of the Iranian nuclear debate
- 1979: Islamic revolution, the ayatollah Khomeiny decided to continue the
program of nuclear research in order to face Israel and its nuclear
weapon.
- 2002: Satellite pictures showed the suspicious activities of Arak and
Natanz nuclear power plants to the American. They reacted and claimed that Iran
was preparing weapons of mass destruction; Tehran agrees (was forced) to receive IAEA's investigators.
- 2003: France, Germany and United Kingdom (EU-3) offered the first
negotiations.
- 2006: The President Ahmadinejad ensured that Iran belongs to “nuclear
countries”. In reaction, United Nations has been worn of Iranian nuclear activities
potentially dangerous. Then, America agreed to participate to negotiations with
Europeans about Iran, provided Iran reduces their production of enriched uranium.
- 2007: United Nations voted
economic sanctions for Iran which didn’t respect the contract.
- 2009: Iran revealed the existence of a nuclear power plant which produces
enriched uranium in Fordo. On 1st October, a meeting with the 5+1 is
organised. They concluded that Iran is able to develop the nuclear bomb at any
time.
- 2012: The election of an ultra conservative party, closer to Khamenei
favoured a new try of negotiations on the occasion of a new meeting with the
5+1.
- 2013: Hassan Rohani elected, Iran is decided to stop the tensions and
made sure that Iran should not be seen as a threat to the US and Europe. Obama
and Rohani talked for the first time for fourteen years, and the President met the
President Hollande.
- 2015: on July 14,th China, Germany, France, United Kingdom,
Russia, United States, European Union and Iran in Vienna have concluded the Iranian
nuclear deal.
IV. The issue we
will vote: The Iranian nuclear deal
- Increase the time it would take Iran to acquire enough material for 1
bomb (from 2-3 months to at least 1 year)
- Reduce Iran’s stockpiles of enriched uranium
- Reduce the number of Iran’s installed centrifuges by two-thirds
- Prevent Iran from producing weapons-grade plutonium
- Track Iran’s nuclear
activities with robust transparency and inspectionsShannon Kerlann and Maëlle Panza
Other Data :
Timelines :
Iran nuclear talks: timeline, The Guardian
Iran profile - timeline, BBC
Map :
