dimanche 10 janvier 2016

Summary of the concflict in Syria

I. Location of Syria:

- Capital city: Damascus                         

-  Area: 185,180 km2

-  Population: 17,064,854 of inhabitants

- National language: Arabic

- Religions in Syria: Mainly Islam (74% Sunni and 13% Alawie, a Shiite derivative and Assad’s clan religion), 10% Christian, 4% Kurd.

- The government: Syria is a unitary and semi-presidential Republic. Due to the ongoing civil war, alternative governments were formed such as the Syrian Interim Government and the Democratic Union Party.

- Hafez al-Assad is the previous president of the Syrian Arab Republic. When he died on June 10th 2000, his son, Bashar al-Assad, was elected President following a referendum. Bashar al-Assad is head of Syrian Regional Branch and his prime minister, Wael Nader al-Halqi, is head of government.

- Economic status: Syria is 70% open to foreign trade. It mainly exports agriculture sectors’ products (contributes to about 20% of Syria’s GDP), raw cotton, chemical products, refined products, industry equipment, heavy machinery, oil (about 40% of Syria’s earnings), iron and steel. However Syria’s economy decreased of 60% and its pound has lost 80% of its value. In May 2015, ISIS captured phosphate mines and exploded a vital gas pipeline for Damascus’ heating and electric system.


II. Syria’s conflict:


  • Syria’s civil war is a revolt and popular insurrection which aimed to overthrow Bachar al-Assad’s power in order to establish democracy.

  • The conflict’s roots come from the pacific and anti-regime demonstrations of the Arab spring in 2011. These uprisings turned violent. Teenagers painted revolutionary slogans on a school wall. They were arrested and tortured which resulted in Pro-Democracy protests in March 2011 in the south of the city of Deraa. Security forces then opened fire on the demonstrators and violently repressed them. However, on July 2011, hundreds of thousands of Syrian all over the country were protesting in the streets against the regime. On the 29th June 2011, a group of defected officers and soldiers from the Syrian Armed Forces and civilians founded the “Free Syrian Army” and started fighting against the Syrian Armed Forces.

  • The scale of violence dramatically increased and turned into a civil war between the rebels, mostly present in the south and center of rural areas of Syria, in the north of the country and in the suburbs of Damascus, and the loyalist, who are on the coast and in the biggest cities of the country. Fighting reached Damascus and the second city of  Aleppo in 2012. According to the UN, over 250 000 people had been killed in the conflict by August 2015.

  • Hundreds of people were killed in August 2013 after rockets were fired at several agricultural districts around Damascus. Western powers, the regime and its ally Russia, blame each other.
In total, about more than 6,000 civilians have been killed by bombs dropped by government aircraft on rebel-held areas. The UN believes that civilian gatherings have been deliberately targeted, constituting massacres.
Thus, A mission led by the UN and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), and the prospect of a US military intervention, made President al-Assad agree to the complete removal or destruction of Syria's chemical weapons arsenal. The destruction was made a year later however the OPCW reported the use of toxic chemicals, such as chlorine and ammonia, by the government in attacks on rebel-held northern villages between April and July 2014 which resulted in the deaths of about 13 people.
Islamic State has also been accused of using homemade chemical weapons against Kurdish forces and civilians in northern Syria.

  • A UN commission of inquiry, investigating alleged human rights violations since March 2011, has evidence that those on both sides of the conflict have committed war crimes - including murder, torture, rape and enforced disappearances. Government and rebel forces have also been accused by investigators of using civilian suffering - such as blocking access to food, water and health services - as a method of war.
Islamic State has also been accused by the UN of waging a campaign of terror in northern and eastern Syria. It has inflicted severe punishments on those who transgress or refuse to accept its rule, including hundreds of public executions and amputations. Its fighters have also carried out mass killings of rival armed groups, members of the security forces and religious minorities, and beheaded hostages, including several Westerners.

  • The conflict became more than a simple battle between rebels and President al-Assad’s loyalists. It also has a Religious dimension. Indeed, Iran, Iraq and the Lebanese political party of Hezbollah backed President al-Assad’s regime, all of the three are Shiites. On the other hand, Qatar, South Arabia and the terrorist groups of Al Quaeda, Islamic State and al-Nusra Front backed the rebels (who are Sunnis). The armed rebellion has significantly evolved however the rising amount of Islamists and Jihadists, with their brutal tactics, have caused widespread concern and triggered rebel infighting

  • What began as another Arab Spring uprising against an autocratic ruler has mushroomed into a brutal proxy war that has drawn in regional and world powers. Iran provides full support to President al-Assad by sending him military advisers, weapons and spending millions of dollar a year. The Syrian government also benefits of Hezbollah’s militia’s fighters that have provided important battlefield support since 2013 and the Iraqi’s militia (it was at first placed at the Sayyidah Zaynab Mosque but is now spread everywhere especially in the city of Aleb). Moreover, President Assad can rely on the support of China and Russia. These two members of the United Nations blocked several times decisions which were not in favour of President al-Assad’s regime. Russia has economical, military and geopolitical motivations to help Syria. Indeed, Syria is an old client of theirs, then the port of Tartous is their last military base on the Mediterranean Sea and finally, President Poutine did not appreciate the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s intervention in Libya in 2011 which was supposed to protect the civilians, not to overthrow Kadhafi.                                    In September 2015, Russia launched an air campaign against Mr Assad's opponents. It was said to target terrorists but many of the strikes hit Western-backed rebels and civilians.

  • The Occident is hostile to President al-Assad’s regime. Thus, they created the “National Coalition for Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces” in December 2012 during the fourth Arab League gathering. It is composed of about one hundred countries. However, it is poorly finance, barely send weapons and has a little influence in Syria. It only provides a diplomatic support.

  • As for the Gulf’s Monarchies, especially South Arabia, they see the conflict in Syria as an opportunity to weakened Iran, their biggest opponent. Therefore, they send weapons to the rebels threw Jordan and Turkey. Kuwait’s Salafists also provide private donations and funds. 

  • This conflict has resulted into more than four million people escaping Syria, most of them being women and children. It is one of the largest refugee exoduses in recent history. Neighbouring countries such as Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey are struggling to accommodate the flood of new arrivals.
According to the UN, about 12.2 million are in need of humanitarian assistance inside Syria, including 5.6 million children. They also have estimated in March 2015 a total economic loss of  $202bn and 30% of Syrians being in abject poverty. Syria's education, health and social welfare systems are also collapsing.

    
  • Thus, it has been concluded that the best solution to end the conflict would be a political solution. However, a number of attempts by the Arab League and the UN to broker ceasefires and start dialogue have failed.
In January 2014, the US, Russia and UN convened a conference in Switzerland to implement the 2012 Geneva Communique, an internationally backed agreement that called for the establishment of a transitional governing body in Syria formed on the basis of mutual consent.
The talks, which became known as Geneva II, broke down in February after only two rounds. The UN special envoy Lakhdar Brahimi blamed the Syrian government's refusal to discuss opposition demands and its insistence on a focus on fighting "terrorists" - a term Damascus uses to describe rebel groups.
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon says the organisation's long-term strategic objective remains a political solution based on the Geneva Communique. The UN special envoy Staffan de Mistura has also proposed establishing a series of "freeze zones", where local ceasefires would be negotiated to allow aid deliveries in besieged areas. But his attempt to broker a truce in Aleppo in March 2015 was rejected by rebels in the city, who feared the government would use it to redeploy its forces elsewhere and that IS militants would simply ignore it.


Shannon Kerlann and Maëlle Panza

Timeline:  - http://timelines.latimes.com/syria/ from Los Angeles Times
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